The Arab Misbaha

A popular Arabic saying goes “when the Misbaha breaks, all the beads fall”. Misbaha is the string of beads used by Muslims to count during prayer.

The commotion in the Arab world continues to swell and won’t settle anytime soon. Protesters in Cairo are leading the way and continue to flock down Tahrir square in greater numbers every week. Mubarak may still be holding to his chair, but when music stops he surely won’t have one. The revolution is firming to bring over 30 years of his rule to end  The question however, if the US and the west would allow Egyptians to rid themselves not only of Mubarak but also of those associate with his legacy like Omar Suleiman, his new deputy.

The last couple of weeks confirmed that the Arab generations that grew under oppressive regimes and controlled media were finally liberated by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. The efficient and long-established practices of mukhabarat or secret service are no longer adequate to face the supremacy of the internet-powered masses. Fear, an old ‘‘friend’’, is now on the “blocked” list for these people.

Amid the storm that is now blowing in Egypt, Yemen, Jordan and Syria, Israel is right in the eye of the storm.  The calm today doesn’t reflect the growing anxiety of what this storm may bring tomorrow and there is no hiding of that stance. For Israel, the will of millions of Egyptians equates to nothing concerning who should rule over them. Instead, it advocates for the faltering oppressive regime to be protected. But the Americans find it awkward to preach democracy one week and the opposite the next.

Israel’s fears are well founded. It always hedged its bets on the permanence of neighbouring regimes compliant with Israel’s’ interests regardless of their popularity. Being content to posture as the defiant and strong aggressor among a sea of foes may prove very precarious when the prison guard disappears. True peace is one made between peoples, not governments, whatever Israel may think

Starting in Cairo, if the mounting US strings of influence wane under the momentum for change and the pleas for stability and slow transition give way to transparent popular leadership, three outcomes will emerge across the region — political reform, economic opportunity and a new outlook on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

It is traditional wisdom that to reshape the Arab political terrain you must start from Cairo. Hosting the largest population, military and political influence, Egypt maintains the leader’s role by exporting its workforce, culture and a reading of Islam which counters that of the Saudis.

Doubting the readiness of Arabs to embrace democracy is deceptive and self-serving. Challenges exist, but the majority of Egyptians are tolerant and well educated, and the Muslim Brotherhood will ultimately have to reflect that — the radicals are inconsequential and despised by the majority.

In existence since 1928 and maintaining its popularity by offering services to the poor, the Brotherhood naturally appeals to a few in a country with impoverished millions. Alleging that the majority of its members are radicals is deceitful. Barring sporadic extremist off-shoots attributed by some to Sayyid Qutb’s writings, the group has predominantly advocated non-violence since it was founded by Hassan al-Banna.

The protesters in Tahrir Square and centres like it across the Arab world are young, energetic and internet-savvy. Whilst mostly secular Muslims and Christians, the ones with Islamist tendencies are in fact far more influenced by the likes of popular television preacher Amr Khaled and may not even know who Qutb is. Khaled denounces violence and advocates for better education, positive change and peaceful coexistence with the West. The new celebrity activist Wael Ghonim released this week is a far more accurate representation of the orchestrators of this revolution, not the brotherhood. Ghonim is well educated, smart, has very positive outlook and more importantly, strong exposure to the democratic west.

But would a democracy let alone one that engages with Islamists be allowed to emerge? In the Palestinian Authority, Hamas was elected in transparent elections, only to come under attack the very moment it was sworn in. Consequently Hamas failed, without its pragmatic voices being given the chance to speak, substitute activists with diplomats and transition the movement to a political party. Instead, the West opted to ignore the wishes of Palestinian voters, divide them and push Hamas further into radicalism.

The US and the west ought to let people choose, and respect the choice. Allow sincere inbred democracies that take in moderate Islam to come forward. Strengthen Egyptian moderates, impair the extremists’ portrayal of the west as the interfering enemy and dispel the myth that all Muslims are extreme and violent. Secularism and moderate Islam are not mutually exclusive, and the Egyptians can make it work.

Economically, the stagnant, primitive and consumer-oriented Arab economies are a blend of protective communist and follower capitalist, with combined gross domestic product (GDP) for the 22 countries for 2009 matched by that of Canada alone at $1.6 trillion.

The global economic crisis, unemployment and ragged infrastructure are enormous impediments to turn these economies around. A stable and democratic Middle East, with its strategic geographic location, its access to natural resources, the availability of human capital and access to large markets - including its own - in Africa and Asia are ideal ingredients for economic growth to feed a reformist political agenda

Lastly, the prospect of Israel facing a fresh political scene dictated by the free will of the masses, instead of briefings in diplomatic cables, is perhaps wishful thinking today, but a real possibility tomorrow.

From the Palestine papers saga of last week, we can conclude first that the helpless Palestinian Authority will soon follow Ben Ali. Second, that blatantly continuing the Palestinian dispossession and settlement building will prove to the world that Israel is not in the least bit interested in peace.

The social networks can also expose what Israel was once able to hide. Recognising its own geography, Israel should urgently seek people-to-people peace. Peace shaped by individuals’ rights is more credible than one that bargains with those rights. Only then can Israelis and Palestinians accept each other and accommodate the generations that have lived on or were displaced from the land they both call home.

The Arab giant may have not been fully awoken yet, but it has certainly been given a good stir this week. As for the Arab Misbaha, it broke couple of weeks ago.

Amin Abbas

Diaspora Palestinian 
3rd Feb 2011