The Revolutions the Arabs had to have

“alsha’b yoreed eskat al-nizam”; “The people demand  the fall of the regime”

The most popular melody in the region these days and most dreaded by the leaders. Lyrics by the people, with no foreign engagement or funding allowed in this grand and long-awaited production. The musical chairs in the Arab world have only just started.

The Arabs are inspired to revolt. The infectious fairytale freedom movement refuses to abate; Peaceful, spontaneous, youthful and with clear purpose. This is not only history being made; it is shaping to be the finest for Arabs in a long time. The loss of life is heartbreaking and regrettable, and yet the sense of collective pride and hope has not been the same in generations.

Libya is a challenge. Silmiyeh - peaceful had to be at the heart of it all; more Egypts not Iraqs awaited.  The inborn model for totalitarian regime change known to deliver that Arabs must protect and grow.

Gaddafi and Assad’s “outside conspiracy “nonsense still goes on. The silliness and outright lies are bizarre, for Arabs however, one-man fiction shows became the norm. The blend of fear and propaganda forever worked, but the rules of the game have suddenly changed. The era for these pathetic dictators has ended.

The protests continue to set course, however no genuine change is offered. Dictators are dogged by power illusions and greed. Oust Bin Ali and Mubarak are examples of this, the later - means notwithstanding, contender in the richest men club with Carlos Helú and Bill Gates, as for Gaddafi, candidate for war crimes against his own people. The Arab masses however, with their newly found might, recognize the acts of despairing leaders and are no longer interested in more miscarriages of democracy or eleventh hour offers. They demand the return of their countries and fortunes back to them.

The rapid revelation of events goes beyond the rejection of corruption and absolute power; and demonstrate the serious disparities in future outlook and values and the total failure of the old guard to recognize the sense of urgency of the younger generation, a steady seepage of confidence in regimes that lacked popularity and legitimacy in the first place.  Leadership that does not represent, speak for or is even interested in the people it leads has to go.

Surely, an abundance of challenges exist even for Cairo and Tunisia, leading the way of transition. Impartiality of the military, influence of the old guard, entrenched corrupt networks, economic pressures and external influences including that of the US and the West.

The role of the West is despicable in the region. Dictators were protected when considered friends and shady or even tax payers dollars easily traceable to the likes of Mubarak and others. Exposing this dirty laundry is old news, but is now too Hippocratic to sustain, and the reason why a role for the west is unpopular today.

The thorny challenge begun when the tribal and oil producing Libya deviated from the blueprint. Straying in violence, the weakened army had a limited role to play in tipping the balance, and the peaceful masses turned rebels became the prey to Gaddafis' bombs and bullets. The undesirable western involvement could not be avoided and lives had to be protected.

As this unsettling scenario sets a violent precedent, swift action ought to bring focus back on a political alternative. The frail regime must be confronted with popular and internationally recognized resistance to further isolate the man. Gaddafi is on borrowed time and it is the Libyan people that ought to shorten it.

Saleh is following the footsteps of Bin Ali and Mubarak and Yemenis are sticking to the peaceful game-plan. The Army and diplomats have taken the people’s side, and Saleh’s chair is sliding away under him. For Syria, now in the mix, the brutal mukhabarat or secret service state won’t survive the mounting will of the oppressed, and likely to conform to the Egypt model. Concessions were not forthcoming from Assad, and the script of the deposed dictators is in play; quell protests, sack the government, block the internet and accuse Aljazeera and foreign interference.

More challenging are the Oil Sheikdoms. The Khalifas of Bahrain had the opportunity. Shifting from absolute to constitutional monarchy, giving more powers to the people and considering serious reforms may save them. They should accept the country’s make up as the sectarian games has only dead ends. But Bahrain’s neighbors won’t allow this among their fold.

US support for the Saudis to help to quell the protest in Bahrain has one explanation; No democracy is the Gulf is allowed. The risks and economic implications enormous, the political landscape harder to read and the US can’t afford neither watch nor actively intervene. But recent wisdom suggests that is the people that have the final say after all.

For Palestinians the challenge is even greater. The occupied and dispossessed lead by the corrupt, powerless and divided as they face up to the mighty, Israel, as it continues the land grabs and settlement building. And yet, Palestinians foremost priority is to agree on common vision for the future, a crucial prerequisite to their long awaited transformation.

In September, the Egyptians will elect new leadership and so too the Palestinians.  Chances are, the out-of-touch Palestinian Authority will follow Ben Ali and Mubarak, and the peace charade will go with it.

The new Egyptian Prime Minister, Essam Sharaf, went to Tahrir square the first Friday after he was appointed and said, “I draw my legitimacy from you the people”. Within minutes, his speech was posted on facebook with thousands of “likes” against it. Arabs are looking for leaders to like and be inspired by. These are the revolutions the Arabs had to have!

Amin Abbas

Diaspora Palestinian 

March 2011